Ducati’s Strategy and Marquez’s Challenge: Unraveling the Australian GP Dynamics

Ducati believes Marc Marquez's edge in Australia will fade away by Saturday.

In a recent episode of our Australian GP preview podcast, Peter McLaren, the MotoGP Editor for Crash, mentioned that he experimented with ChatGPT to forecast the results of the concluding races in the 2024 MotoGP championship race.

The accuracy of that forecast will become clear in less than a month, although I have my doubts about AI's capability to predict MotoGP outcomes.

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If you were to inquire about ChatGPT's predictions for the first day of practice at the 2024 Australian Grand Prix, I believe it would have nailed it perfectly. Torrential rain leading to the session being called off? Yes. Tension involving the title challengers? Indeed. Marc Marquez being his usual self? Certainly. A red flag prompted by wandering animals on the track? Absolutely.

Friday was indeed a day full of events at Phillip Island, yet it was challenging to draw any clear conclusions from it.

Michelin faced significant setbacks today. Phillip Island was resurfaced before this year's racing events at the stunningly scenic track. This situation created chaos for Pirelli and the World Superbike competitors in February, as safety concerns led to enforced pitstops during the races because specialized tires for the new surface were not ready in time.

Michelin has been given slightly more preparation time for its tires. They have introduced three choices for both the front and rear at Phillip Island. The rear tire categorized as soft is actually the medium from the previous year. Meanwhile, the medium and hard choices feature a firmer build, similar to those employed at the Indonesian Grand Prix, aimed at managing the heat challenges the tires will encounter on the freshly laid asphalt of a track that already places significant demands on the tires.

The cancellation of the first practice session and the looming threat of rain meant that teams couldn't collect much data on long runs. Aiming for a direct entry into the second qualifying session, most drivers focused on using the soft rear tires to secure a position in the top 10.

Piero Taramasso, the head of Michelin motorsport, mentioned that the soft tyre performed well without significant wear, making it a feasible choice for the sprint race. However, a dry 13-lap sprint is essential to fully evaluate the tyre's performance in race conditions and determine if it is suitable for the grand prix. The three front tyre options tested received positive feedback.

As of now, it doesn't seem like Sunday will involve a series of pitstops reminiscent of 2013. This comes as a relief to the championship front-runners following a tense Friday.

As we approach the final four rounds of the competition, the stakes are incredibly high for Pramac's Jorge Martin and the current two-time world champion Francesco Bagnaia, with only a 10-point gap between them. Any mistake at this stage could have significant consequences.

Friday at Phillip Island was all about testing the riders' composure. Early in practice, Martin took a tumble. He collided with Fabio Quartararo while trying to prevent a more severe crash with the Yamaha racer. Since his backup bike was equipped for rainy weather, the Pramac team had to quickly fix his primary motorcycle. Given the constant threat of bad weather, this was time Martin couldn't afford to lose.

Upon returning to the track, a wandering goose caused race officials to issue a red flag. At the moment of this interruption, neither he nor Bagnaia had recorded a lap time. An unexpected rainstorm could have pushed both of them into Q1.

At the Phillip Island practice session, both Márquez brothers secured the top two positions. Ducati showcased a strong performance, filling most of the top 10 spots, while Alex Rins successfully advanced to Q2 for Yamaha. #MotoGP #AustralianGP pic.twitter.com/3fmjz0pRs9— Crash MotoGP (@crash_motogp) October 18, 2024

The rain stayed away, allowing both riders to secure spots in Q2, with Martin taking fourth place and Bagnaia closely following in fifth, just 0.046 seconds behind. Unfortunately, Enea Bastianini didn't have the same luck and ended up in 16th position. As he competes with Marc Marquez for third place in the standings, the balance has notably tipped towards the Gresini rider on the first day in Australia.

Throughout the years, Phillip Island has proven to be a favorable track for Marquez, who has clinched victory three times in the top-tier class. The counterclockwise design of the circuit complements Marquez's riding technique, as demonstrated by the way he accelerated the back of his GP23 through Stoner corner, unintentionally honoring the corner's namesake. It was no shock that he was ahead in the sector two split, which includes Turns 3 through 6.

Amid unpredictable circumstances, Marquez thrives on a green track. This was evident when he excelled on the Ducati at Aragon, where the newly laid, low-grip surface seemed to suit him perfectly. Similarly, during the short rain at the San Marino GP, he surged ahead to take the lead and ultimately claim victory.

Right from the start, Marquez appeared to be in command, leading a GP23 sweep with his Gresini teammate Alex Marquez and VR46's Marco Bezzecchi following closely. This outcome was intriguing, especially amid growing reports leading up to the Australian GP that Ducati had to switch back to a previous flywheel setup on its GP23 engine after Marc Marquez's engine failure in Indonesia.

It is believed that the disparity in performance between the GP23 and GP24 became more pronounced at the Japanese Grand Prix. However, Marc Marquez defied expectations by securing a podium finish in both races held at Motegi.

After the session, Marquez seemed to indicate to his crew chief, Frankie Carchedi, that he was experiencing issues with the rear end pushing against the front. This is a familiar problem for Ducati riders using the 2024 Michelin tires, and it is expected to worsen on the freshly laid Phillip Island track. However, Ducati team manager David Tardozzi thinks that the GP23 data from the previous year sheds light on why the GP24 was lagging during Friday's performance.

The speaker mentioned that Pecco enjoys putting in a significant amount of effort on the motorcycle. Initially, he was dissatisfied with the original bike. As a result, they adjusted the motorcycle by altering its configuration and suspension settings.

"We discovered a solution, and Pecco is in the mix. It's quite satisfying to see three 2023 model bikes leading the grid. The information we have on the 2023 models is extremely helpful, especially since we lack data on the 2024 models. However, I believe the 2024 models will make their presence felt tomorrow."

Marquez's frequent crashes during Q2 sessions have understandably prevented him from considering his position in the rankings before finishing Saturday’s qualifying. However, if he maintains his Friday performance, he has consistently shown in 2024 that he can effectively compensate for the GP23's weaknesses.

Although he isn't a contender in the championship fight, he benefits from Martin and Bagnaia needing to avoid any needless confrontations. As a result, even though the GP24s are expected to show significant improvement on Saturday, the primary challenge from the GP23s will persist if Marquez manages to excel in the qualifying rounds.

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