Bagnaia’s Battle: Can the Aragon Clash with Alex Marquez Truly Define His MotoGP Title Chase?

Is it justifiable for Pecco Bagnaia to attribute his championship shortfall to the collision with Alex Marquez?

Should the altercation at Aragon be held responsible?

Heading into the final three races of the 2024 MotoGP championship, Jorge Martin is ahead of Francesco Bagnaia by a 20-point margin in the overall rankings, following their performances at the Australian Grand Prix.

Bagnaia has outperformed Martin in Sunday races, securing eight wins, a feat that aligns him with renowned racers such as Marc Marquez, Valentino Rossi, and Jorge Lorenzo in terms of accomplishing a comparable milestone within a single season.

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Martin has secured victory in just three grand prix races but currently leads the championship by 20 points. A key reason for this lead is the seven races Bagnaia failed to finish during the 2024 season.

Bagnaia has a history of triumphing despite numerous scoreless races to secure championships. In 2022, he managed to overturn a 91-point deficit midway through the season, surpassing a faltering Fabio Quartararo on the Yamaha, despite encountering five races without scoring any points. Continuing this pattern into 2023, he experienced an equal number of races without points yet succeeded in defeating Martin to clinch the title.

Bagnaia has achieved a personal best with seven victories, overcoming Martin, whose steady performance has supported his modest collection of three Grand Prix wins.

The two competitors have collectively achieved six victories in sprints throughout 2024. Martin has secured a spot on the podium 13 times in Saturday races. On Sundays, Bagnaia has impressively won eight times, a significant contrast to Martin's three victories, yet they are tied with 13 podium finishes each overall.

In 2024, Martin failed to finish four races, with two of those instances occurring while he was in the lead of grand prix events, and another during his front-running position in the Indonesian sprint.

Is it mistakes on his own part or is Alex Marquez to blame?

Upon securing a third-place finish at the Australian Grand Prix, Bagnaia spoke about the inconsistent trajectory of his championship season, pinpointing his collision with Alex Marquez at Aragon as the significant setback currently weighing on his championship aspirations.

"We keep alternating between making progress and facing setbacks. It seems our results are quite even," he stated. "Unfortunately, the incident where I collided with Alex Marquez is currently having the most significant impact on the championship standings."

During the competition for third position, Bagnaia, who had the speed advantage and ample time to overtake safely, was involved in an incident. As a result, he lost the opportunity to earn 16 points. Meanwhile, Martin extended his lead in the championship from three points post-sprint to 23. Had Bagnaia secured third place, the difference in their standings would have been reduced to just seven points.

Undoubtedly, the mishap came with a hefty price tag. Yet, does it genuinely stand as the obstacle impeding Bagnaia's progress?

Merely a couple of races following, Bagnaia encountered another race without earning points. After securing a victory at the Emilia Romagna GP sprint, which narrowed down Martin's advantage to just four points, he experienced a fall while attempting to recover his position in third. This occurred after a peculiar tyre problem caused him to lose his spot in the competition for the win during the early stages of the grand prix.

If Bagnaia had finished in third position, he would have been only eight points behind Martin after the Misano race, rather than 24. In Indonesia, since Martin received 25 points for winning the grand prix and Bagnaia earned 28 points over the course of the weekend, the difference in their points would have narrowed to five. Following a dominant performance in Japan, where Martin added 26 points and Bagnaia outscored him, Bagnaia would have moved ahead by six points in the overall rankings.

Martin, by finishing ahead of Bagnaia by 10 points in the Indonesian race, reclaimed the championship lead, but his margin over Bagnaia is now just four points rather than 20.

By accounting for the loss of at least six points due to Bagnaia's crash from third place in the Silverstone sprint and the 12 points missed from his fall while leading the Barcelona sprint, Bagnaia would have held a 14-point lead in the championship standings for Italy.

The crash involving Alex Marquez at the Aragon GP sparked controversy when Bagnaia initially accused the Gresini racer of intentionally colliding with him. However, the reigning champion eventually retracted his statement and offered an apology for his earlier remarks.

Undoubtedly, the points forfeited in that scenario have impacted his aspirations for the championship, yet it's not the primary incident that has significantly undermined his standing in terms of points.

Regrettably, Bagnaia has been his own worst enemy with significant scoreless outcomes, a situation he must swiftly address to counteract the advantage Martin has gained in the championship standings.

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