Rocky Start: Evaluating Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Challenging First 100 Days

Keir Starmer's Initial 100 Days as Prime Minister: The Consensus Is Negative

It's been a challenging first 100 days for the Prime Minister, a period he'd likely rather erase from memory. Across the board, from public opinion to internal party dynamics and the functioning of his office at Number 10, Sir Keir has faced considerable challenges.

Political editor Beth Rigby (@BethRigby)

Saturday, October 12, 2024, 7:

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Sir Keir Starmer is celebrating his initial 100 days as prime minister. When queried about whether the prime minister believed he had a successful beginning, his press spokesperson responded, "That's for the citizens to determine."

The results are out, and they're not favorable: Last week, Sir Keir's approval ratings plummeted to -33, a significant decline of 44 points from his peak after the election. Additionally, one survey showed the Labour Party only maintaining a slim lead of one point over the Conservatives.

A recent YouGov survey reveals that almost 50% of previous Labour voters are disappointed with the party's performance to date, and 60% are dissatisfied with the government's achievements, compared to just 16% who support the current administration under Starmer.

Sir Keir is likely to argue that the focus shouldn't be on the initial 100 days, but rather on the "next decade of national renewal." He might be onto something. After all, how can anyone predict a political leader's success based solely on their first 100 days?

In one of his "Letter from America" broadcasts, the esteemed Alistair Cooke referred to the emphasis placed on the first 100 days as a "foolish custom."

Indeed, there is some truth to his perspective. Initially, comparing anyone to the standard set by Franklin D. Roosevelt proves challenging. Roosevelt established a historic legislative record during his initial 100 days as president, aiming to rescue the United States from the depths of the Great Depression and address a significant national emergency.

There has been nothing quite like it, either before or after its occurrence. It's clear why the boastful Donald Trump would brush off the concept of the first 100 days as an "absurd benchmark" (even as he paradoxically showed great concern for it and even launched a website to highlight his early achievements).

Leaving aside Franklin D. Roosevelt, the initial 100 days serve as an important benchmark. They establish the initial atmosphere of a leader's term and provide insights into the leader's drive and early achievements.

In the initial stages following a successful election, a prime minister enjoys peak popularity and political influence.

The initial 100 days serve as a milestone where we evaluate if a leader has risen to the occasion or failed to meet expectations.

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Public to decide if Prime Minister's initial 100 days are successful

100 Days Sir Keir Would Rather Erase

Sir Keir has reached a 100-day milestone that he might prefer to erase from memory. Across the board, from opinion polls to internal party dynamics and the functioning of Number 10, it's been an underwhelming beginning for him.

The fact that a prime minister felt the need to reshuffle his senior staff and appoint a new chief of staff, Sue Gray, before reaching his 100th day in office speaks volumes.

Rather than boasting about the achievements of this Labour government during its first 100 days in office, the prime minister has initiated a comprehensive reboot of his administration.

The new beginning that was touted during the election campaign quickly turned into a disappointing false start as his Number 10 team was crippled by internal disputes. His popularity took a nosedive following controversies over perks, and his administration became so embroiled in its own chaos that it failed to communicate its narrative of change and demonstrate it to the public.

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A remarkably vexing beginning

A high-ranking official has acknowledged that it has been an "incredibly frustrating" time, as the government's efforts have been overshadowed by chaos surrounding power struggles in Downing Street and disputes concerning concert tickets, glasses, and suits.

"Many of Starmer's initial actions are aimed at fulfilling the commitments made in the manifesto, particularly concerning the economy. We've advanced renters' reforms, ensured that employment is rewarding, we're establishing GB Energy, and we are advancing changes in planning," remarks another high-ranking official.

"Much of our efforts have been focused on initiating actions that fulfill our commitments to the populace. It is detrimental for all involved, especially for each cabinet member, not to discuss the reforms that the nation voted us in to implement."

"Our popularity has suffered somewhat due to the issue of freebies, but I believe we can recover as this situation pertains more to perceptions than actual misuse of public funds. It really boils down to the public's desire to see the Prime Minister actively address the matters they prioritize, such as the cost of living, healthcare, and economic concerns. The lack of visible leadership in these areas is understandably aggravating."

'The nation is in a deplorable state'

Sources within both Number 10 and Number 11 concede that the situation has proven to be far more challenging than initially expected.

From the violent urban unrest following the Labour Party's election victory, to the shortage of incarceration facilities and the urgent financial deficits reported by the Chancellor, the newly elected government has faced a series of significant obstacles.

"A senior government official noted, 'The first 100 days have starkly revealed the dire state of the nation.'"

Add to this the turmoil in the Middle East and the persistent conflict in Ukraine, and it's clear that this prime minister and their new cabinet are facing an array of significant challenges.

However, what has also become evident in these initial 100 days is the subpar state of the prime minister's administration.

The Prime Minister has made a significant risky decision.

You might be unfamiliar with the individuals operating out of 10 Downing Street and their roles, but one thing is clear: needing to revamp the administration just three months into its term due to dysfunction, toxicity, and inadequacy is hardly a good sign.

It poses a pressing issue: if a prime minister struggles to manage Downing Street, how can he possibly manage the entire country?

Last week, Sir Keir took decisive action to reorganize his team at No 10, marking a significant point in his initial term.

The prime minister has made a significant and risky decision by replacing Sue Gray, his chief of staff and the most influential unelected official in the government, with Morgan McSweeney, a close confidant and crucial political advisor.

He has replaced a seasoned Whitehall professional, who has more than three decades of governmental experience, with a political strategist credited as the mastermind of the electoral win. However, it remains uncertain if Mr. McSweeney will manage the government as effectively as he orchestrated the campaign.

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Is McSweeney qualified to govern?

The primary reason for integrating Ms. Gray into the Number 10 team was her deep knowledge of government operations and her ability to effectively navigate and manipulate the mechanisms of Whitehall to achieve results.

Mr. McSweeney is known for his astute political maneuvers, yet questions linger about his capability to manage governmental operations. It appears that Sir Keir had doubts about his experience, opting instead to bring Ms. Gray on board.

Sources close to Ms. Gray have indicated that she believed Sir Keir should bolster the staff in his office as the leader of the opposition with more prominent figures, especially now that he is leading the government.

Sources indicate she advocated for the recruitment of individuals she believed possessed the required expertise. The absence of a principal private secretary for Sir Keir, a key aide for any prime minister, was reportedly due to a standoff involving Ms. Gray and others over this appointment.

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The atmosphere grew tense when Ms. Gray clashed with advisors regarding their official roles, proximity to the prime minister, compensation, and suitability for their positions in the government, leading to her being the target of constant briefings.

The more media attention Ms. Gray received, the clearer it became that her situation was growing increasingly difficult with a prime minister who was losing patience.

Sir Keir took decisive action. However, the fact that his team became so dysfunctional and continued to engage in internal conflicts, despite his clear disdain for such behavior, does not look good for the prime minister. It suggests that the issues within his team are widespread and not just due to a single person.

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Starmer likely wishes for a fresh start

The prime minister might find some solace in knowing that the critiques often directed at a leader during their initial 100 days do not necessarily determine their overall effectiveness in office.

President Bill Clinton experienced an unstable beginning during his initial term but eventually became the first Democratic president since Roosevelt to secure a second term.

If, as an ally of Sir Keir mentioned to me, "every day in government is important," then it must also be acknowledged that Sir Keir's initial 100 days as prime minister have been disappointingly unproductive, as he struggled to establish priorities and maintain order within his administration.

He is a prime minister who likely wishes he could completely erase his first 100 days in office and begin anew.

An investment summit is scheduled for Monday, with the budget announcement set for later in the month. The government's objective is to adopt a "boring" approach and refocus on governance.

The upcoming election is quite some time away, and Sir Keir enjoys a substantial lead along with significant influence.

He might be able to dismiss the initial three months if he successfully navigates the upcoming ones. However, having already stumbled once, he cannot risk a second misstep.

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