Rewriting the Championship: The Impact of Removing Sprints on MotoGP’s 2024 Title Race

Insight: The 2024 MotoGP Championship Race Without Sprints Post-Motegi

Removing sprint finishes from the equation presents a captivating points landscape

With only four sprint races remaining in MotoGP's sophomore season, the discussions regarding their value have mostly subsided.

As the tumultuous 2023 season wrapped up, the introduction of sprints turned out to be a crucial factor in keeping the championship race open until the last event. Without the sprints, Francesco Bagnaia would have easily secured the championship title based solely on his grand prix performances.

In its most recent analysis of recalibrated points in 2024, excluding sprint outcomes, Crash.net observed that the championship was predominantly leaning towards Bagnaia.

Following the Austrian Grand Prix, Bagnaia led Jorge Martin by a mere five points. However, when the sprint results were excluded, this lead expanded significantly to 43 points.

Since the Austrian Grand Prix, we've seen five rounds unfold, leaving only four more as the 2024 season approaches its grand finale.

Before the upcoming Australian Grand Prix next weekend, Martin is at the top of the leaderboard, holding a 10-point advantage over Bagnaia, following the factory Ducati rider's impressive achievement of securing his fourth sprint/Grand Prix combo of the season in Japan, along with clinching his eighth grand prix win.

Considering only the points adjusted from the Grand Prix outcomes, the championship race between the top two contenders has tightened since the Austria event.

Standings in the championship following 16 races, excluding points from sprint events

In the current standings, the points for the top 10 riders have seen significant changes. Bagnaia, who was leading with 279 points, has increased his tally to 382. Close behind, Martin has jumped from 261 to 392 points, overtaking Bagnaia. Bastianini has also seen a substantial rise, moving from 226 to 313 points. M. Marquez is not far behind, escalating from 216 to 311 points. Binder's score has gone up from 144 to 183 points, while Bezzecchi has advanced from 123 to 134 points. Acosta has made a noteworthy leap from 118 to 181 points. Di Giannantonio has seen his points rise from 113 to 134, Vinales from 108 to 163, and A

The margin between Martin and Bagnaia narrows significantly, dropping from 43 to a mere 18, as we move from the Austrian to the Japanese stage of the season, if we set aside sprint points. Clearly, in this situation, Bagnaia is the frontrunner.

Bagnaia experiences a 28-point shift from his actual position in the standings, but when considering only grand prix outcomes, this margin narrows to merely eight points.

In 2024, Bagnaia continues to dominate race day performances, securing his eighth win of the season in Japan. He becomes the first motorcyclist since Marc Marquez in 2019 to achieve this milestone, placing him among the ranks of renowned riders such as Jorge Lorenzo, Valentino Rossi, and Casey Stoner, who have similarly accomplished this feat within a single season.

In 2024, Martin has secured victories in three races, with his most recent triumph taking place in Indonesia. This marks his initial win since the French Grand Prix in May.

Since our last update following the Austrian Grand Prix, Bagnaia's lead in the championship, not counting his sprint victories, has diminished due to two non-finishes at the Aragon and Emilia Romagna races. From the Aragon Grand Prix to the present, Bagnaia has accumulated 61 points on Sundays, compared to Martin’s 86 points. Bagnaia made a tactical mistake during a short period of rain in the San Marino Grand Prix, which had a significant impact on his performance. However, aside from that, he has consistently finished in the top two positions at every Grand Prix since Austria, and, with the exception of the San Marino mishap, he has maintained this performance since the summer break.

Excluding DNFs, Bagnaia has secured a second-place finish in San Marino, a third-place in Indonesia, and achieved a victory in Japan over his most recent five races.

In the last four Grand Prix races, where a total of 100 points can be earned, Martin faces a more challenging task in overtaking Bagnaia in the rankings, especially if sprint races aren't considered in the outcomes, compared to Bagnaia's task of overcoming his present 10-point shortfall with 148 points still up for grabs.

A key reason for Bagnaia falling behind Martin in this situation is their respective failures to score points. So far, Bagnaia has failed to score in seven races this season, with three of these instances – Portugal, Aragon, and the second Misano race – occurring on Sundays. In comparison, Martin has failed to score in four races throughout the season, with only two of these failures happening on Sundays (Spain and Germany).

Trailing the leading duo, Enea Bastianini is a bit nearer with a 53-point deficit in third place, rather than 79. However, with only 100 points remaining, Bastianini faces the possibility of being out of contention for the title as soon as the Australian race if Bagnaia exceeds his score by 22 points.

Marc Marquez's prospects of remaining in the race have diminished further, as he trails by 63 points. This means that if Bagnaia scores 12 more points than him in Australia, Marquez will be out of the running.

In both the imaginary situation and the actual competition for the championship, the leading pair are the central characters. Additionally, it's noteworthy that Ducati is certain to win the riders' championship in either case, as Brad Binder cannot claim the title, regardless of whether sprint points are factored in or not.

In this scenario without sprint races, Marco Bezzecchi's year appears more successful than it truly is. While he's still a long way from competing for the championship in 2023, he manages to climb to sixth in the standings without the sprint events, having only earned 11 points during the Saturday races in 2024 on the challenging GP23.

How would the 2024 MotoGP rankings appear if grand prix outcomes were excluded?

The points table from sprint races continues to significantly benefit Martin, with his exceptional performances on Saturdays standing out in this period.

Rankings in the championship following 16 races, not including the outcomes of the grand prix events

1. Martin – 1312

2. Bagnaia – 1033

3. Marquez – 954

4. Bastianini – 875

5. Acosta

Following 16 races, his total points from sprints have reached 131, an increase from 95 noted after the Austrian race when this metric was previously examined. Since that time, Bagnaia has significantly improved his performance in sprint sections, boosting his score to 103.

Following the race in Austria, he amassed a total of 57 points in the sprint category, a consequence of failing to score in four sprint races during the season's initial stages. Subsequently, he managed to add only a single point to his tally in Aragon, but secured a second-place finish in the first Misano race, and then went on to clinch victories in the second Misano race, as well as in Indonesia and Japan. On the other hand, Martin secured a second-place finish in Aragon, took the top podium spot in the first Misano race, finished second in the second Misano race, ended up in 10th place in Indonesia after a crash while leading, and achieved a fourth-place finish in Japan.

This has resulted in a 28-point advantage for him over Bagnaia in the rankings, while Marquez trails by an additional eight points in third place. With 48 points available across the last four races, Martin could secure his initial championship title opportunity in Thailand.

Time and again, short races have been instrumental in narrowing the competition for the championship title. Nonetheless, the consistent performances of Bagnaia and Martin throughout 2024 suggest that even with the rules from before 2023, we would be witnessing a captivating race to the championship conclusion.

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