West Europe gentle automobile gross sales set to fall by over 28% in October
Preliminary information gathered by GlobalData reveals that the West European gentle automobile market fell by 28.8% year-on-year in October.
This sits under GlobalData’s earlier expectations for the month of a fall of 23.3%.
The outcome marks the fourth consecutive month-to-month fall because the market continues to be constricted by stock woes stemming from the worldwide chips scarcity.
In SAAR phrases, the annualised promoting price for the preliminary information got here in at 1.12m, the bottom October outcome since GlobalData’s information started in 2007. In latest occasions, this marks the bottom SAAR for the area since Might 2020.
For the Huge 5 markets – Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the UK – the estimated gross sales fall exceeded the general market, crashing a mixed 30.1%. Gross sales within the greatest market, Germany, fell an estimated 34%, marginally higher than the estimated lead to Italy of practically 36%. By comparability, gross sales within the UK and Spain fared higher, with declines of 21.8% and 23.4% respectively.
GlobalData analyst Calum MacRae informed Simply Auto that for the remaining two months of the 12 months he count on gross sales to proceed to endure year-on-year declines, although of a decrease magnitude than October’s drop. “This could see the West European market shut the 12 months at 12.4m, some 0.3% down on the COVID-19 ravaged 2020 market,” he stated.
MacRae maintains that COVID-19 nonetheless presents vital draw back danger to the market. He factors out that an infection charges are as soon as once more on the rise in most West European markets (bar Spain for the time being) with governments monitoring the scenario intently. “It may very well be that extra lockdowns are the order of the day in sure markets if infections and hospitalizations begin to spiral,” he warns.
“Coupled with the worsening macroeconomic outlook on account of vitality costs and mounting inflationary pressures volumes in West Europe, the area would possibly wrestle to achieve our present 13.6m forecast for 2022,” MacRae says. A 13.6m West European market subsequent 12 months would quantity to a 9.7% enhance on 2021’s forecast outturn.
“The forecast increment would possibly seem beneficiant on the floor, but it surely’s price remembering that greater than 2.7m items have been eliminated final 12 months from 2019’s pre-pandemic degree – that’s equal in measurement to the French market in additional regular occasions,” he provides.
GlobalData additionally forecasts the worldwide automobile market in 2021 is heading for a disappointing outcome, dented by shortages of crucial parts which have restricted new automobile provide. GlobalData forecasts a world gentle automobile marketplace for 2021 of 79.9m items, simply over 5% forward of 2020’s end.