Pedro Acosta Set to Challenge Ducati Dominance at San Marino GP: Lap Time Analysis Reveals Intriguing Battle Ahead

Analysis of lap times indicates that Pedro Acosta could pose a challenge to Ducati. While Ducati riders are in a strong position to clinch victory at the San Marino Grand Prix, an external contender might disrupt their plans.

Aprilia's victory at the Americas Grand Prix feels like a distant memory now, to the point where Ducati's brief setback in the 2024 MotoGP season seems nearly forgotten.

Except for Maverick Vinales’ impressive victory at the Circuit of the Americas, every grand prix podium has been led by a member of the Bologna team. Marc Marquez ended the streak of GP24 victories by dominating last weekend’s Aragon Grand Prix on his Gresini-operated GP23.

Regardless of whether it's an older or newer model, Ducati appears to have a consistent chance of winning each week.

As the San Marino Grand Prix approaches this weekend, with the first of two races set to take place at Misano this month due to the cancellation of the Kazakhstan event, attention is focused on Ducati's top four riders in the championship standings.

Over the past three years, Ducati riders have claimed victory at the San Marino GP. Francesco Bagnaia secured wins in both 2021 and 2022, and in 2023, Jorge Martin took the win for Pramac, significantly boosting his championship campaign that year.

Following the first day of the 2024 San Marino Grand Prix, the results were predictable. Bagnaia, even though he was still in pain from his collision with Alex Marquez in Aragon the previous Sunday, set the fastest lap at 1m30.685s. He was closely followed by Marc Marquez, who had won in Aragon. Martin, and Pramac team-mate Franco Morbidelli, along with Enea Bastianini, completed the top five positions.

With Martin, Bagnaia, Marquez, and Bastianini separated by just 71 points at the top of the standings, Friday's one-lap performances suggest an exciting weekend ahead. However, a detailed analysis of the extended practice session on Friday afternoon indicates that among the Ducati riders, Martin, Bagnaia, and Marquez are the key competitors to keep an eye on.

During the second practice session, Martin completed 18 laps using a soft rear tire, distributing them over multiple stints. His quickest lap time was 1 minute and 31.579 seconds, achieved on the tire's 18th lap. Considering that Sunday's grand prix will consist of 27 laps, Martin's performance is notably fast. This pace is crucial as he aims to increase his 23-point advantage in the championship rankings.

In contrast to his main competitors for the championship, Gresini's Marquez completed 11 laps using a soft rear tire and added a brief four-lap stint with a medium rear tire. Marquez demonstrated impressive speed, clocking a time of 1 minute and 31.364 seconds. This performance came on a soft tire that had already been used for 10 laps, indicating a solid race pace. However, his pace wasn't quite as strong as Martin's, considering the wear on his soft tire.

Marquez aimed to replicate his experience on the bike from the Red Bull Ring as the weekend began. He confirmed that he managed to do so and is competitive, though he admits that Martin and Bagnaia have an edge over him.

Bagnaia completed 14 laps using a medium rear tire, achieving his fastest lap time of 1m31.570s on his ninth lap. By the end of his run, his lap times were around 1m31.795s. This performance is impressive, although there are still doubts about Bagnaia's endurance for an entire race. He mentioned that he took painkillers before the afternoon session, which improved his physical state. Bagnaia also expressed that having such a successful day on the bike was essential for him, especially after the events in Aragon.

During his fast lap, Bagnaia was fastest in three out of the four sectors. KTM’s Jack Miller, who followed Bagnaia closely during the late stages of the second practice to secure a spot in Q2, observed that the world champion excelled especially in Turns 1 and 2. Miller also mentioned that Bagnaia’s speed in the third sector is impressively high, calling it “embarrassing” how good it is.

Bastianini didn't perform as well in Friday's assessment. He completed 12 laps using a medium rear tire, with his fastest time being 1m32.066s, achieved towards the end of his stint on that compound. However, this time is still significantly behind the leading three Ducati riders, and he needs to improve if he wants to reduce his 71-point gap to Martin.

Analyzing the average speeds, Marquez leads with a time of 1 minute and 31.919 seconds over five laps. Bagnaia is close behind, clocking 1 minute and 31.989 seconds over eight laps. Martin records 1 minute and 32.091 seconds across six laps, while Bastianini posts a time of 1 minute and 32.484 seconds over four laps.

The data has been adjusted to exclude cancelled laps and times that don't accurately reflect performance. However, it still doesn't provide a completely accurate picture due to the varying circumstances of each rider's laps. Martin, who has been dealing with a stomach virus, mentioned that he dedicated considerable time to adjusting his bike's set-up, which affected his ability to maintain consistent performance.

Pedro Acosta is set to challenge Ducati

However, after Friday's sessions at Misano, there is one non-Ducati rider who appears to be a significant contender against the Italian brand.

Pedro Acosta quickly established himself as the fastest rider in the second practice session on his Tech3 GASGAS bike, frequently leading the times on his KTM. The newcomer arrived in Misano following his first weekend with two podium finishes at Aragon, marking a strong comeback after a series of challenging races.

The KTM showed strong performance at Misano the previous year, with test rider and wildcard Dani Pedrosa nearly achieving podium finishes in both races, ultimately securing fourth place. Acosta has recently spent time on the track at Misano, testing WP suspension on a Moto2 bike. Although this experience is vastly different from handling a 300hp MotoGP machine, it will undoubtedly assist him in getting off to a quick start on Friday.

During a discussion at Aragon, Acosta mentioned the idea of "taking one step back to take two steps forward." To break free from the slump he's been in since the summer break, Acosta's Tech3 team decided to go back to the settings he used at the beginning of the season. These settings had previously helped him secure podium finishes in the grand prix races in Portugal and America.

Although Acosta had a fall late in the second practice at Turn 8, he still easily clinched a direct spot in Q2, ranking sixth on the timesheets. His consistent speed over longer runs positions him as a strong candidate for a podium finish at Misano and potentially even a win.

On Friday afternoon, the 20-year-old completed 16 laps using a soft rear tire. His fastest time was 1 minute 31.301 seconds when the tire had 12 laps on it. He also recorded a time of 1 minute 32.014 seconds on his final lap with the same tire. When averaging his times over nine laps, excluding any laps that were canceled or not representative, his pace was 1 minute 31.921 seconds.

Remarkable during the race, if Acosta can replicate his Aragon performance and secure a spot on the front row or even the first two rows in qualifying, he is set to be a significant challenge for Ducati's top riders at their home event.

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