Marquez’s Masterclass and Bagnaia’s Balancing Act: Key Takeaways from the Aragon MotoGP

Pecco Bagnaia's balance between risk and reward | Key highlights from the Aragon MotoGP

These are the top five discussions from the Aragon MotoGP at MotorLand.

The front of last weekend's Aragon MotoGP didn't have much action, but the event was still packed with notable moments, including the resurgence of one champion's dominance and the recurring issues faced by another.

What lessons did Marquez's win really impart?

In several respects, Marc Marquez's triumph in the Aragon Grand Prix, along with his performance in Saturday's Sprint, has stirred up more inquiries than it has resolved.

Marquez came to Aragon following what many consider his strongest performance of the season in Austria. He secured fourth place in the Grand Prix there and had an incident in the Sprint race. Despite Austria not being a track where Marquez typically excels, unlike Sachsenring, he demonstrated competitive speed that could have seen him battling with second-place finisher Jorge Martin if he had avoided errors.

Thus, the outcome at Aragon was bound to happen. Marquez evidently made progress with the Desmosedici relative to earlier races, and MotorLand — a track where Marquez undeniably holds some sort of edge — made his victory seem almost certain.

His performance clearly indicates that he will be competing for the top spots throughout the remainder of the season, particularly given his substantial lead over the other competitors.

However, the situation is more complex than it appears, as both the Austrian and Aragon weekends were anything but simple.

In Austria, the racers faced the challenge of using a rear tire with a tougher construction designed to manage heat, which is necessary for the track's numerous intense acceleration areas. This type of tire differs significantly from those used at most other tracks.

In Aragon, the track's new and unclean surface was a perfect match for Marquez's skills, as his proficiency in dirt tracking gives him an edge on low-grip tracks. Rainfall on both Friday and Saturday night ensured that Marquez maintained his advantage throughout the weekend, as the track conditions remained as poor as they were on Friday afternoon.

This doesn’t imply that Marquez didn’t earn his win in Aragon; his success was due to his personal skill, unique riding technique, and his capabilities in those specific circumstances.

Even he acknowledged that the circumstances in Aragon were unique during the post-race press conference, much like the tyre situation in Austria had been exceptional.

In that regard, MotoGP has not experienced a 'regular' weekend with typical conditions since Silverstone, where Marquez felt uneasy throughout the event.

The unique characteristics of Austria's tires and the surface of the Aragon track suggest that Misano will be the only venue where we can truly compare Marquez's performance to that of Francesco Bagnaia and Jorge Martin under standard conditions.

Bagnaia's assessment of risk and reward

Every racer constantly weighs the risks against the potential rewards, and it appears that Francesco Bagnaia miscalculated this balance during the race in Aragon.

The collision with Alex Marquez on the 18th lap of the Grand Prix could have been prevented and wasn't needed. Had he exercised more patience, he would have had ample opportunity to overtake Marquez comfortably in the remaining laps.

However, that may not be the case.

In the leading six spots, there was just one clean overtake during the entire race. This maneuver was executed by Jorge Martin on Pedro Acosta along the back straight. Earlier, Martin had unsuccessfully attempted to pass Acosta at turn eight.

Apart from that, the alterations in the leading six positions occurred under several circumstances: Acosta nearly lost control exiting the last corner, which let Alex Marquez pass; Miguel Oliveira's crash at turn 16 moved Bagnaia up to sixth; Franco Morbidelli going wide at turn five allowed Bagnaia and Brad Binder to advance to fifth and sixth places, respectively; and Acosta going wide at turn 16 enabled Bagnaia to take fourth place.

Throughout the entire race, Brad Binder didn't overtake anyone after the first lap. He spent nearly all 23 laps just a few meters behind Bagnaia, and later Acosta, without making a single pass.

As a result, one could argue that passing other racers at Aragon was particularly challenging on Sunday, primarily due to the extremely narrow racing path and the significant amount of debris off the track.

Analyzing the incident involving Bagnaia and Marquez in detail is essentially futile if the goal is to determine who was at fault, as both riders were at fault.

Marquez needed to look to his left when merging back into the line, similar to the error he made at turn one on the third lap with Franco Morbidelli trailing him. Meanwhile, Bagnaia should have either given more room or abandoned the maneuver completely if he felt he couldn't provide enough space due to the tight racing line and the condition of the track beyond it.

Both parties were at fault, but since Alex Marquez was not competing for the championship and his future was already assured, it is clear who suffered the most from the incident.

The key issue is that Bagnaia tends to fall short in these situations more frequently than his competitors, especially Jorge Martin, who has secured second place in the past six races and currently holds a 23-point lead in the championship.

Consider the events in Aragon and Portimao involving Marc Marquez, the 2023 incident at Le Mans with Maverick Vinales, and his 2022 crash in Motegi while attempting to overtake Fabio Quartararo.

Each incident shares a common thread: Bagnaia’s hesitance to relinquish space or miss an opportunity.

In this context, the mentioned incidents are comparable to Bagnaia's outside overtaking move on Jorge Martin at Jerez last year, his similar move on Martin in Malaysia the same year, his double outside pass on Martin and Marco Bezzecchi at Jerez this year, his battle with Marc Marquez at turns nine and ten in the same race, his surge to the front on the first lap in Qatar this year, and a similar aggressive start at Mugello this year.

To summarize, if Bagnaia's issue is psychological, it both hinders him and brings benefits.

Bagnaia realizes that losing positions now makes it significantly more challenging to regain them later, typically due to front tire pressure issues. However, there are occasional exceptions, such as what happened at Phillip Island last year or in Catalunya this year.

In Aragon, he was well aware of the difficulty and danger involved in attempting an overtake. So, when he perceived an opportunity due to Marquez's error at turn 12, he seized the chance. Though it didn't work out, this mindset is also what leads to Bagnaia's standout performances, such as those in Jerez, Mugello, and Malaysia.

Taking a Step Back to Move Forward

Pedro Acosta began his debut season in MotoGP with great success, yet his recent podium finish at the Aragon Grand Prix was his first since the Americas GP in April.

Reason: KTM was working on enhancing the RC16 to boost its lap time potential. However, this pursuit compromised Acosta’s feel and comfort with the bike, leading to a 13th place finish in Austria.

Acosta's return to the podium in Aragon can be attributed, at least partially, to reverting to an earlier bike setup that he had used earlier in the year and felt more at ease with. This change led to improved lap times, greater consistency, and ultimately resulted in a better race performance and finishing position.

It's important to note that during the quickest practice session of the weekend, none of the KTM riders managed to place in the top 10, resulting in all of them missing out on Q2.

Following rainfall on Friday night, the track became dirty once more for Saturday's qualifying session. Both Acosta and Brad Binder managed to advance to Q2, with Acosta securing a position on the front row.

Due to continuous rain from Saturday night into Sunday, the track remained dirty for the Grand Prix. The KTMs maintained their speed, with Acosta securing third place and Binder coming in fourth.

Therefore, considering the RC16's frequent sideways riding style by riders such as Acosta, Binder, and especially Jack Miller, it's logical that the KTMs excelled on dirt tracks. However, they performed poorly on cleaner tracks. So, did they genuinely improve by reverting their specifications or not?

Similar to the situation with Marquez, the true outcome will only be clear when the motorcycles hit the track at Misano for the San Marino Grand Prix this weekend.

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