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Labour Poised to Lead, Yet Short of Majority: A Deep Dive into Sky News’ Latest Election Projections

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Sky News forecast: Labour likely to be the top party, yet lacking a full majority

According to recent data from local elections, projections indicate that Labour is likely to emerge as the leading party in parliament, though it is expected to miss securing a majority in the Commons by 32 seats.

By Professor Michael Thrasher, elections analyst for Sky News

Friday, May 3, 2024, 5:

Sky News has analyzed data from two million local electoral divisions and used this information to forecast national voting trends. Their projections indicate that, in the upcoming general election, the Labour Party might emerge as the largest party, yet without achieving an outright majority in Parliament.

After more than 50% of the districts have reported, Labour's support has increased from 33% in the previous election to an estimated 35% currently.

The Liberal Democrats have risen to 16%, gaining five percentage points since the 2019 election. This reflects a common trend where the party performs more strongly in local council elections compared to general parliamentary elections.

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It is forecasted that other political groups including the Greens, Reform, and independent candidates will collectively secure 22% of the vote.

The estimate also presumes that the support for nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, regions where local elections were not held, remains consistent with the last election results. This assumption extends to the 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland as well.

If the shifts in voter support are consistent throughout all the redesigned parliamentary districts set for the upcoming general election, the Labour Party is projected to secure 294 seats, surpassing the Conservatives, yet still lacking 32 seats for an outright majority.

The Conservative Party's representation diminishes from 372 to 242 seats based on the new boundaries, reflecting a significant decrease of 130 seats. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats see an increase from eight to 38 seats.

In typical forecasts, there are specific districts where the tally of community votes indicates a party is leading in that area, even though a consistent shift across the board might suggest a different outcome.

In instances like Aldershot and Plymouth Moor View, when we compile local voting data from wards within these constituencies, both areas show a shift towards Labour.

Using the same method, the Labour Party's count of seats diminishes after independents clinch victories in local constituency elections in places like Blackburn and Oldham West, based on the actual vote count.

Labour consistently holds onto these seats when a consistent swing across the board is factored

Stay informed on the most recent developments both in the UK and globally by tuning into Sky News.

The significant number of votes cast for alternative parties indicates an increasing trend among voters in local elections to back various minor parties.

This year, the trend has intensified, with a noticeable shift from Labour to independent candidates in specific regions of the country.

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