Decisive Moments Await in Birmingham: Can Tory Leadership Hopefuls Capture the Cameron Spark?

Tory leadership contest: A compelling oration could completely alter the dynamics of the race – but do any of the candidates possess that capability?

As the Conservative Party convenes in Birmingham for its yearly meeting, the spotlight is on the remaining four contestants aiming to garner backing. The 2005 conference demonstrated the significant impact their words can have, potentially reshaping historical outcomes.

Senior political reporter @joncraig

Friday, September 27, 2024, 05:

The battle to replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative leader may be decided in Birmingham in the coming days.

The competition among the remaining contenders at the party conference could elevate one of the lesser-known four from an underdog to a leading candidate.

Robert Jenrick has taken an early lead among his Conservative peers and showcases impressive finesse. However, there remains a question whether any of his competitors, such as Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, or Tom Tugendhat, might unexpectedly overturn expectations.

Previously, in a remarkable turn of events, David Cameron delivered a career-defining speech during the 2005 leadership contest, surpassing the initial frontrunner, David Davis, to clinch the victory and take control of the Conservative Party leadership.

Gazing forward to Birmingham, an experienced conference attendee informed Sky News that it will either be a "triumph or disaster!" and is visibly eager about the prospect of the group confronting Conservative supporters in the full view of live television cameras and under the watchful eyes of influential party leaders and stakeholders.

There's no stress on the single woman and three men currently in the spotlight. This moment marks a critical juncture in the leadership contest: it's akin to a penalty shoot-out in a campaign that has been drawn out and harsh, according to some critics.

Drawing from another football metaphor, it's akin to what Sir Alex Ferguson would often call moments of intense pressure – "squeaky bum time."

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In 2005, the individual who would become Lord Cameron captivated his audience with an engaging and optimistic speech, delivered entirely from memory as he casually walked across the stage at Blackpool's famed Winter Gardens. His performance was met with prolonged and enthusiastic applause.

To be clear, Mr. Davis did not fail; rather, his speech was competent yet unremarkable. In the context of the leadership race, his presentation stood in stark contrast to another, marking a pivotal moment in the campaign.

This iteration of the competition kicks off with an informal "fireside chat" session, where members can ask questions to each contender for one hour. The schedule has Mr. Tugendhat and Ms. Badenoch slated for Monday, followed by Mr. Jenrick and Mr. Cleverly on Tuesday.

Wednesday is set to be a significant day, featuring four 20-minute "stump speeches." The anticipated speaking sequence will be Mr. Tugendhat, Mr. Cleverly, Mr. Jenrick, and Ms. Badenoch.

In his memoirs, Lord Cameron reflected on the 2005 conference, stating, "The week in Blackpool was undoubtedly one of the most thrilling experiences of my life."

"The sound quality was excellent, the auditorium was full, and the spectators were near the stage. The ambiance and possibility were palpable."

Despite the positive feedback, Lord Cameron felt that his recent speech did not match the quality of the one he delivered during the launch of his campaign just a few days prior.

"He admitted that a vast audience had witnessed it, since it was broadcast live on TV and featured again on the nightly news."

Certainly, that was the case

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I clearly recall covering the speech for Sky News and characterizing it as "electrifying." This assessment was enthusiastically highlighted by Mr. Cameron’s team in their leadership campaign newsletter the next day.

The address was typical of what we eventually came to expect. Quintessentially Cameron, it was brimming with positivity and optimism, radiating warmth and cheerfulness. It featured these phrases:

"I became part of this group because of my deep affection for my nation…

"I became a member of this group as I am committed to the principles of liberty

"I became a member of this party because I am driven by ambition…

"I hope individuals can once again take pride in identifying as Conservatives."

Discover more: Conservative contenders might receive a warning for criticizing one another. Which contender is favored by the public?

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In a statement that might as well have come from Sir Keir Starmer regarding transforming the Labour Party, he stated: "We need to transform… we must alter our culture so that we appear, perceive, think, and act like an entirely new entity."

In his memoirs, Lord Cameron remarked, "Many were struck by the fact that I gave the speech from memory, after we had put it together. Looking back at it, it seems somewhat stiff to me, yet it was effective."

Absolutely, it did. "In just one day," Lord Cameron noted, "the polling numbers shifted dramatically: my support skyrocketed from 16% to 39%, whereas for Davis, it plummeted from 30% to 14%."

The transformation was remarkable. Is it possible for such a change to occur this year in Birmingham?

In 2005, despite the presence of leadership hopefuls Kenneth Clarke, Liam Fox, and Malcolm Rifkind at the Winter Gardens, the competition was primarily viewed as a duel between two frontrunners, including Mr. Davis, who at 75 years old, continues to serve in the Commons.

However, Mr. Davis wasn't the only prominent figure. Mr. Cameron's image as the progressive candidate was enhanced by his opponent showcasing female backers in snug T-shirts emblazoned with "It's DD for me".

Journalists dubbed it "a storm in a DD-cup". Two decades later, it's improbable that we will witness similar types of advocacy again.

Will any of the four contenders for leadership manage to replicate the success of Lord Cameron at the 2005 Tory conference, which ultimately led him to secure the party leadership?

It could definitely happen. I wouldn’t rule it out. But who among the candidates will it be?

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