Closing the Gap: Jenrick Nears Badenoch in Tight Tory Leadership Race, Sky News Poll Reveals

Tory leadership contest: Robert Jenrick closes gap on Kemi Badenoch, survey indicates

Recent developments reveal that in the past six weeks, Kemi Badenoch's significant lead over Robert Jenrick has diminished among Conservative members, based on a survey of those who will choose the upcoming party leader.

By Sam Coates, associate political editor and Tom Larkin, political production specialist

Tuesday, October 1, 2024, 6:

Robert Jenrick is close behind Kemi Badenoch following a significant increase in his backing, as revealed by a unique poll of Tory members conducted by Sky News.

According to a recent YouGov poll conducted for Sky News, every one of the four Conservative contenders has a potential route to success, though Tom Tugendhat appears to confront more significant challenges compared to his rivals.

Over the past six weeks, there has been a significant change in the leadership race within the Conservative Party. Ms. Badenoch has seen her previously strong lead over Mr. Jenrick diminish among Tory members, as shown by the latest poll conducted since the number of candidates was narrowed down to four.

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Six weeks ago, in a direct contest between the two, Tory members favored Ms. Badenoch over Mr. Jenrick by a margin of 59% to 41%, giving her an 18-point lead.

According to a recent Sky News survey of 802 Conservative Party members conducted over the past nine days up to Sunday evening, Ms. Badenoch now leads with 52% of the vote compared to Mr. Jenrick's 48%, a narrow margin of just four percentage points.

Ms. Badenoch and Mr. Jenrick emerged as frontrunners in the initial voting stages. In the coming week, lawmakers will narrow the field to two final candidates.

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Mr. Jenrick's team thinks their odds of victory increase if Ms. Badenoch is not in the final round, whereas either Mr. Cleverly or Mr. Tugendhat would probably only enter the contest if she is ousted.

A contender from the party's centrist, unifying faction might still emerge victorious in the race.

Surveys indicate that Mr. Cleverly is slightly behind Mr. Jenrick, with a four-point difference as they enter the last stage. In a direct comparison, Mr. Jenrick leads with 52% compared to Mr. Cleverly's 48%. When matched against Ms. Badenoch, the margin widens to eight points, where she holds 54% and Mr. Cleverly 46%.

In the concluding round of polling, Mr. Tugendhat emerges as the least successful candidate, trailing behind both Ms. Badenoch and Mr. Jenrick by a margin of 58% to 42%, a deficit of 16 points.

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