**Aragon MotoGP Analysis: Marquez’s Masterclass, Bagnaia’s Gamble, and Acosta’s Comeback**

Pecco Bagnaia’s delicate balance between risk and reward | Key highlights from the Aragon MotoGP

Here are the top five highlights from the Aragon MotoGP at MotorLand.

Last weekend's Aragon MotoGP may not have seen much action at the forefront, but it offered plenty to observe, from witnessing one champion regain control to seeing another's weakness resurface.

What lessons did Marquez's win offer?

Marc Marquez's triumph at the Aragon Grand Prix, along with his success in Saturday's Sprint, raised more uncertainties than it resolved.

Marquez came to Aragon following what many consider his strongest performance of the season in Austria. He secured fourth place in the Grand Prix and had an accident during the Sprint. Despite Aragon not being a track where Marquez typically excels, unlike Sachsenring, he demonstrated a speed that could have placed him in competition with second-place finisher Jorge Martin if he hadn't made errors.

Thus, Aragon's outcome was predictable. Marquez had evidently made progress with the Desmosedici since earlier races, and arriving at MotorLand — a track known for giving Marquez a certain edge — it was logical that he would emerge victorious.

His performance demonstrates that he will be competing for top spots throughout the remainder of the season, particularly given his substantial lead over the other competitors.

However, the situation was more complex, as both the Austria and Aragon weekends were anything but straightforward.

In Austria, the motorcyclists faced challenges with a more robust rear tire designed to dissipate heat, suited for the track's numerous intense acceleration areas. This tire is significantly distinct from the ones typically used at most other circuits.

In Aragon, the newly laid and unclean track conditions greatly benefited Marquez, as his skill in dirt tracking gave him a significant edge on surfaces with little grip. Due to rain on both Friday and Saturday nights, Marquez's advantage remained consistent throughout the weekend since the track never improved beyond its Friday afternoon state.

This does not imply that Marquez did not earn his win in Aragon; his triumph was due to his own skills, riding technique, and personal capabilities in those circumstances.

During the press conference after the race, he acknowledged that the conditions in Aragon were unique, much like the tyre used in Austria was distinctive.

In this regard, MotoGP has not experienced a 'typical' weekend with standard conditions since Silverstone, where Marquez felt uneasy throughout the event.

Due to the specific conditions of Austria's tires and the surface at the Aragon track, we can expect to get a clear comparison of Marquez's performance against riders like Francesco Bagnaia and Jorge Martin only under normal conditions at Misano.

Bagnaia’s Trade-off Between Risk and Reward

Racers constantly weigh the risks against the potential rewards in nearly every situation. Recently, it appears that Francesco Bagnaia miscalculated this balance during the race in Aragon.

The collision with Alex Marquez during the 18th lap of the Grand Prix was both needless and could have been prevented. Had he shown more patience, he would have easily overtaken Marquez in the remaining four laps.

However, that may not be the case.

Among the top six racers, the entire race saw just one clean overtake that wasn't due to an error by another rider: Jorge Martin's maneuver past Pedro Acosta on the back straight. This move came after Martin had earlier botched an attempt to pass Acosta at turn eight.

Aside from that, shifts in the top six occurred when Acosta nearly high-sided exiting the final corner, giving Alex Marquez an opportunity to pass; when Miguel Oliveira crashed at turn 16, moving Bagnaia up to sixth place; when Franco Morbidelli went wide at turn five, allowing Bagnaia and Brad Binder to advance to fifth and sixth positions, respectively; and when Acosta ran wide at turn 16, enabling Bagnaia to climb into fourth place.

Take Brad Binder as an example; he didn't overtake anyone after the first lap. Instead, he spent nearly all 23 laps closely trailing behind Bagnaia and later Acosta, just a few meters away.

As a result, it can be concluded that passing other racers at Aragon on Sunday was particularly challenging, mainly due to the extremely tight racing line and the significant amount of debris off the track.

Analyzing the incident involving Bagnaia and Marquez to determine who was at fault is futile because both riders made errors.

Marquez ought to have looked to his left when merging back into the line, similar to the oversight he had at turn one during lap three with Franco Morbidelli behind him. Meanwhile, Bagnaia should have either allowed more room or abandoned the maneuver altogether if he believed he couldn't maintain adequate space due to the tight racing line and the track conditions beyond it.

Both parties were at fault, but considering Alex Marquez isn't competing for the championship and has a guaranteed future, it's clear who suffered the most from the incident.

The key issue here is that Bagnaia frequently finds himself at a disadvantage in these situations compared to his competitors, especially Jorge Martin, who has secured second place in the last six races and now holds a 23-point lead in the championship.

Consider the Aragon event, the Portimao episode involving Marc Marquez, the Le Mans 2023 situation with Maverick Vinales, and his 2022 Motegi accident during an attempt to overtake Fabio Quartararo.

They share a common trait: Bagnaia's hesitance to yield ground or miss a chance can arguably be blamed to some degree.

In a similar vein, the aforementioned incidents resemble Bagnaia’s maneuver around the outside of Jorge Martin at Jerez last year, his outside pass on Martin in Malaysia the same year, his double overtake on the outside of Martin and Marco Bezzecchi at Jerez this year, his battle with Marc Marquez at turns nine and ten in the same race, his surge to first place on the initial lap in Qatar this year, and his comparable charge at Mugello this year.

To summarize, if Bagnaia's struggles are mental, they both detract from and contribute to his successes.

Bagnaia realizes that surrendering positions now generally makes it significantly more challenging to regain them later on, with a few exceptions such as Phillip Island last year or Catalunya this year. This difficulty is primarily due to front tire pressure.

In Aragon, he was aware of the difficulty and danger involved in attempting an overtake. Therefore, when he perceived an opportunity created by Marquez's error at turn 12, he decided to seize it. Although it didn't work out, this mindset is what leads to Bagnaia's standout performances, such as those in Jerez, Mugello, and Malaysia.

Taking a Step Back After a Strong Start

Pedro Acosta began his first MotoGP season impressively, yet the Aragon race marked his first appearance on the Grand Prix podium since the Americas GP back in April.

Reason: KTM was working on enhancing the RC16's speed to boost its lap time performance. However, this pursuit came at the expense of Acosta's comfort and confidence, leading to a disappointing 13th place finish in Austria.

A significant factor in Acosta's return to the podium in Aragon was reverting to an earlier bike setup that he felt more at ease with. This change led to faster lap times, improved consistency, and ultimately a stronger race performance and finishing position.

It's important to note, however, that during the quickest practice session of the weekend, none of the KTM riders made it into the top 10, resulting in all of them missing out on Q2.

Following rain on Friday night, the track conditions were messy again for Saturday's qualifying session. Both Acosta and Brad Binder managed to advance to Q2, with Acosta securing a spot on the front row.

Continuous rain from Saturday night into Sunday left the track in a messy condition for the Grand Prix. Despite this, the KTMs maintained their speed, with Acosta securing third place and Binder coming in fourth.

Therefore, considering that the KTMs performed well on dirt tracks—understandable given the frequently sideways riding style of racers such as Acosta, Binder, and particularly Jack Miller—yet lagged behind on cleaner tracks, the question arises: did they truly advance by reverting to their previous specifications?

Similar to the situation with Marquez, we won't have a definitive answer until the motorcycles hit the track at Misano for the San Marino Grand Prix this weekend.

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